Rahul 29-Sep Axis - Rahul 29-Sep Axis

Structural gold bull intact — Axis rates 15% overweight (extreme bull: 20-25% over 5-7yr) on de-dollarisation and geopolitical safe-haven demand, with interim entry volatility expected and one genuine tail risk: a government import-duty cut once INR stabilises would compress the MCX-LME spread (the domestic price premium that tariff policy inflates above the international LME benchmark).

Build staggered long MCX Gold futures from current levels toward a 15% portfolio weight, deploying the first tranche at the source's base-case 10% and adding on interim dips rather than chasing single-session momentum.

Layer a long USD-INR futures position on NSE currency F&O as a paired FX overlay — MCX Gold is the LME-USD price converted at the prevailing USD/INR rate, so rupee appreciation erodes the INR-denominated return independent of gold's global move; this leg isolates the structural demand thesis from domestic currency drag.

IF import-duty cut is announced (source trigger is "once the currency appears stable" — no specific INR level was cited, so none is given here), trim one MCX Gold tranche and hold the balance via the USD-INR overlay to preserve the global de-dollarisation thesis without absorbing domestic premium compression.

Cap each add tranche at one-third of the target allocation and do not add if MCX Gold has already moved more than 1 ATR (Average True Range — the prior 14-session daily range) off the prior close on the entry session; the 3-7 year compounding thesis carries no urgency on any single day.