Research note

avendus

Added 12 Jun 2026, 10:39 IST (110d ago) · 8 signals

BEARISH
Global equities
Bonds & rates
Gold & commodities

Decision

Claude's read of what this note means — the so-what, not a list of facts. Advisory only; no orders are placed.

The synchronized global unwind — S&P -1.65%, Nasdaq -2.60%, gold -3.38%, silver -6.9% in a single session — was triggered by a US jobs print of 172K vs 88K expected pushing rate-hike probability from 40% to 57%, compounded by $4–5T of incoming US tech IPO supply (SpaceX at $1.75T valuation, Anthropic, OpenAI) forcing fund managers to liquidate from cash reserves already at their lowest since early 2024; your Monday-strangle long-delta book (net positive index exposure when Nifty/Bank Nifty rises) sits directly in the path of sustained FII selling until new Fed Chair Warsh settles 11 days of policy uncertainty at his inaugural meeting.

Trim the Bank Nifty short-strangle put wing via EMS TWAP to reduce net long-delta — the rate-hike and IPO-driven liquidity-drain thesis runs longer than the remaining decay cycle, and a 3–4% index gap will cost more than the premium leg recovers.

Go long USD-INR June futures on NSE: FII equity outflows driven by a 57% rate-hike probability environment convert directly to rupee weakness, and this is the most capital-efficient instrument in your rails to capture the dollar-strength spillover onto your INR book.

Buy Nifty IT OTM puts (expiry spanning the Warsh meeting) as a secondary leg — Broadcom's AI-revenue target miss and Nvidia's memory-demand downgrade (SemiAnalysis pegged demand at roughly half prior market assumptions) signal a narrative shift that will pressure Indian IT stocks priced as AI-spending beneficiaries even though their exposure is services revenue, not chips.

If Warsh's inaugural meeting is hawkish — inflation at 3.8%, oil at $90, and 172K jobs argue for it — hold the Nifty IT puts and add a second USD-INR tranche; if he surprises with a dovish signal, cover both legs and re-enter wider Bank Nifty strangles on the IV reset.

Do not short MCX gold or silver chasing the 3.38% and 6.9% single-session moves — the source provides no support level for metals, and gold reverses sharply when rate-hike fear peaks; entering without a source-cited anchor is speculation dressed as a signal.

Signals (8)

Single claims extracted from the note. The number is each claim's conviction delta, from −5 (strongly bearish) to +5 (strongly bullish).

−4.0

SemiAnalysis: Nvidia next-gen AI chips need ~50% less HBM memory than priced in; SK Hynix -10%, Samsung -6%, Korea index -5.5%

Global equities · medium confidence · strength 9/10
−4.0

US adds 172k jobs vs 88k expected; rate hike probability surges 40%→57% in one session, crushing growth/tech valuations

Global equities · high confidence · strength 9/10
−3.0

SpaceX/Anthropic/OpenAI IPO pipeline ~$4-5T forces fund managers to liquidate holdings; cash at lowest since early 2024

Global equities · medium confidence · strength 8/10
−3.0

New Fed Chair Warsh holds first FOMC meeting in 11 days; appointed dovish but inherits 3.8% CPI + hot jobs — policy outcome unknown

Bonds & rates · medium confidence · strength 8/10
−4.0

Broadcom +48% revenue +143% AI chip sales yet crashes 12.6% on flat guidance — AI trade priced to perfection, cracks forming

Global equities · high confidence · strength 8/10
−3.0

Gold -3.38% Silver -6.9% selling in tandem with equities and crypto — cross-asset liquidation, not rotation; safe-haven bid absent

Gold & commodities · high confidence · strength 7/10
−2.0

Anthropic publishes AI self-improvement warning and calls for global pause — narrative risk for AI-sector multiples on peak-hype day

Global equities · medium confidence · strength 7/10
−3.0

South Korea bourse -5.5% single session on memory demand shock; Japan semis follow — AI supply chain re-rating underway

Global equities · high confidence · strength 7/10

Source text

The research exactly as it was added — check any signal against the original wording.

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Avendus - S&P 500 down -1.65%, wiping out $1.14 trillion. - Nasdaq down -2.60%, wiping out $1.11 trillion. - Gold down -3.38%, wiping out $1 trillion. - Silver down -6.9%, wiping out $280 billion. - Bitcoin down -6.31%, wiping out $80 billion. In total $2.5 TRILLION wiped out in a single session. These were not isolated moves. Everything started breaking at the same time. It started with the jobs report this morning. The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May. Wall Street expected 88,000. That is almost double. On any normal day, strong jobs is good news. But inflation is already at 3.8% and oil is sitting at $90. A labor market this strong tells the Fed it cannot cut interest rates and may actually need to raise them. *The probability of a rate hike this year went from 40% to 57% in a single day.* That spooked every investor holding tech and growth stocks because higher rates mean those stocks are worth less today. Then the AI trade started cracking. Yesterday Broadcom reported record earnings: revenue up 48%, AI chip sales up 143% and the stock still crashed 12.6%. The reason was simple. *Broadcom did not raise its AI revenue targets for the year. Investors had expected it to.* That single miss made people ask a question they had been avoiding for months: are we paying too much for AI stocks? That question got louder today when a research firm called SemiAnalysis revealed that Nvidia's next-generation AI chips will need significantly less memory than everyone assumed, roughly half of what the market was pricing in. Memory chips are what companies like SK Hynix and Samsung make. SK Hynix fell nearly 10% today. Samsung fell over 6%. South Korea's entire stock market crashed 5.5% in a single session. Japan's semiconductor stocks did the same. And then *Anthropic added fuel to the fire by publishing a report warning that AI is getting close to the point where it can improve itself without human help and calling for a global pause in AI development*. Coming on the same day as the memory demand news and Broadcom's miss, it fed a single growing fear across the market: what if the AI boom is moving faster than the business models can keep up with? Underneath all of this, there is a *liquidity problem* nobody is talking about. SpaceX goes public next week at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Anthropic just filed to go public. OpenAI is next. These three companies together are worth $4 to $5 trillion. Fund managers need cash to buy into these listings. But *cash levels are already at their lowest since early 2024. The only way to raise cash is to sell what they already own*. That selling is happening right now. The *new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also hold his very first policy meeting in 11 days*. He was appointed by Trump with the expectation of cutting rates. He is now walking into a situation where inflation is high, oil is high, and the job market is running hot. Investors do not know what he will do. When nobody knows what the most powerful central banker in the world will decide in less than two weeks, the safest move is to reduce risk today. _Everything that could go wrong, went wrong at the same time. A hot jobs report, a collapsing ceasefire, a crack in the AI trade, a trillion dollar liquidity drain, and a Fed meeting with no clear outcome._